Using Confrontation Analysis to show the next step forward in the Gaza conflict.

Summary

This page proposes a path towards lasting peace in the Gaza conflict by encouraging Israel to seek a permanent peace with the Palestinians and then offering to rebuild Gaza as a “New Jerusalem” only for those Palestinians who renounce claims to Israeli land and violence. Those who accept the deal (known as the “Moderate Palestinians”) will gain the benefits of new homes and jobs. The plan relies on international support for reconstruction, autonomy for the new city, and strong security to prevent sabotage, aiming to isolate extremists and foster cooperation among Israel, the U.S., Gulf states, and moderate Palestinians.

The present situation

The progress of the Gaza conflict up to now has been shown as an example in our “learn” section (see here), and we are at present in the situation described by the diagram below:

At the time of writing a cease fire has been declared, that is holding tentatively.

Although the Israelis may be content with what has happened in the short term as they have no dilemmas (problems they care enough about to be actively trying to halt), Hamas still has three and so will be actively trying to change the situation to one more in their favour.

The situation can be summarized as follows:

The First Step: Israel must look for a more permanent peace.

The first step in solving the confrontation may seem a bit counter-intuitive, but Israel must convince itself that it needs a more permanent peace with the Palestinians, and thus it needs to give itself a dilemma to achieve this.  Otherwise, the solution will be temporary, as Israel will seem happy with the situation as is, and will not move forward.  This change should not be too difficult to make, as there is quite a lot of political will for this to happen anyway.

Eliminating Israel's dilemma. Ways to peace.

Israel can then look at its dilemma and ask this question “How can I ensure that Hamas agrees a permanent peace with Israel?”  Confrontation Analysis gives the following possible answers:

Solution proposed.

The solution proposed is a combination of A, C and F. 

The solution should be to offer to rebuild Gaza into a better city than it was before and offering places in the new city only to those Palestinians who will formally renounce their claim to any land in Israel.  It is expected that this will divide the Palestinians into two groups, those who wish to accept the deal, who we will call “Moderate Palestinians” and those who reject it, who we will call “Hamas radicals”.  Trump’s peace proposals include the willingness of the Gulf states and the USA to finance the rebuilding of Gaza, so we hope that they will continue to do this.

Confrontation Analysis: New participants added.

We therefore have the following changes to the participants:

• Change what was “Hamas” into two groups the “Hamas radicals” who will reject the peace plan, and the “Moderate Palestinians” who will accept it. It would be naïve to expect all the Palestinians to agree to the above plan.  There is a lot of hatred and many who believe that it is their aim in life to fight against Jews anyway.  However, others may agree.  Those that agree will be offered a return to a Gaza that will be of a higher quality than the buildings they were living in before they were destroyed in the war.  They will also probably be higher quality than the buildings on the land in Israel that they or their ancestors were evicted from and were hoping to return to.  To add to the feelings of belonging it is suggested that the rebuilt Gaza is called “New Jerusalem”.  To encourage Palestinians to join the “Moderate Palestinians” group the difference between the two choices should be made as stark as possible.

• Add “the USA” and “Saudi and Gulf States” as participants.  They must continue to agree to the plan, in particular, to help finance the rebuilding of Gaza, and to support the moderate Palestinians, rather than Hamas.

Confrontation Analysis: New options added.

We will add the following options to the Options Table:

• The “Moderate Palestinians” must agree to a permanent peace with Israel and abandon any claims to land in Israel and the use of violence.  To ensure that this happens it is proposed that there is a ritual they perform as they accept their new home.  This could, for example, involve surrendering any of the keys they have kept from the homes their ancestors were evicted from.  They are moving house.  They abandon any claims to homes in Israel.  This is their new home.

• The USA and the Gulf states should both finance the rebuilding of the “New Jerusalem” inside the Gaza strip.  This has to be built well, but quickly.  In particular, the moderate Palestinians must not give up hope of getting a good place to live if the building takes too long.  Jobs should be available in the construction of the “New Jerusalem”, and employment given to those who return.  The aim should be to move the Moderate Palestinians out of poverty and dependency as soon as possible.

• Israel should allow the Moderate Palestinians only to live in the “New Jerusalem”.  Those who reject peace and want to continue the struggle should be left in that part of the Gaza strip that remains undeveloped.  The Moderate Palestinians should be able to fully own their land and properties.  Israel should stop the petty humiliations that the Palestinians suffer from, such as long queues at border crossings.

• However, the Moderate Palestinians living in New Jerusalem should not have political equality with the rest of Israel.  Israel should remain a Jewish state, but the new Jerusalem should have a lot of autonomy and freedoms within itself, so it can become prosperous.

• It is expected that the radical members of Hamas will not take this lying down.  They will try to stop Palestinians from becoming “Moderate Palestinians”, and try to infiltrate the New Jerusalem, often with intentions to carry on the struggle by sabotage.  Careful planning and security precautions will be needed to avoid this happening.  In particular, the planning and precautions must be so good that the other participants must think that the Hamas radicals will be UNABLE to inflict sufficient damage on the process to stop it. Israel’s anti-rocket defences should be extended to cover “New Jerusalem” (this may prove hard as the “New Jerusalem” may be closer to the Hamas-radical controlled area than the rest of Israel)

Confrontation Analysis: New options table.

This means that the Options table will expand to that below:

Remember:

• Tick = Is saying it wants this to happen (or is saying it will do this in the threatened future)

• Cross = Wants this not to happen (or is saying it will not do this in the threatened future)

• Dash = Is saying it is indifferent to this happening.

• Blank = Has not stated position.

• Small ticks/crosses/dashes of another participant’s colour under a party’s position = The participant whose colour the small symbol is is trying to bring pressure on the other party and they think it is having the effect of the tick, cross or dash.

• Small crosses of another participant’s colour under “Who does action” = Is saying it thinks that the party cannot do this

In this situation nobody has dilemmas except the Hamas Radicals.  This means that the other four parties should be able to work together co-operatively to achieve this plan.

Problems Remaining

The Hamas Radicals will still have dilemmas and will almost certainly work to eliminate them.  That is why this is only the first step towards permanent peace. However, it is hoped that the Hamas Radicals will be severely weakened even more than they are now because of:

• The large number of defections into the “Moderate Palestinian” cause will reduce their manpower.

• The genuine option for a new life will exist for Palestinians. Before they did not have a choice but to live in squalor and support Hamas as their only way forward.  The option of defecting from being “Hamas Radicals” and joining the “Moderate Palestinians” should exist for all Palestinians.

• Hamas’ support from external parties (except possibly Iran) will be reduced significantly, as external support switches to support for the “Moderate Palestinians”.

• Hamas’ infrastructure and capabilities have already been weakened by the war up to now. It is hoped that they will not have the capability to stop defections.

Conclusions

It is hoped that this plan will bring the Gaza situation nearer to a permanent peace.  It acknowledges that not all the Palestinians support this, but it is hoped that a sizable majority will, and those that do not will be politically and physically isolated, and enticed to join the “Moderate Palestinians”.